OND 2025 Climate Outlook – Wetter vs Drier Scenarios
| ✅ Wetter than Normal – Key HighlightsOpportunities: Pasture & water regeneration, improved livestock body condition, food & income security (SE South Sudan, NE Somalia, SW/NE Uganda).
Risks: Flooding, mudslides (SW Uganda), vector-borne diseases (RVF, LSD, trypanosomiasis), parasites, snake bites, and infrastructure disruption in flood-prone areas. Strategic Takeaway: Maximize rangeland restoration and veterinary services while preparing for flood & disease management. |
🔥 Drier than Normal – Key HighlightsRisks: Severe water & pasture scarcity in ASALs (Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Eritrea), worsening livestock condition, mortality, and loss of indigenous breeds.
Disease & Health: Higher anthrax, transboundary diseases, zoonoses, plus heat stress reducing productivity, food insecurity in vulnerable groups. Economic/Conflict: Reduced livestock prices & incomes, spread of invasive species, increased mobility fueling cross-border conflicts (Kenya–Ethiopia–Somalia, Uganda–South Sudan). |
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Key Response Measures /Advisories
Wetter than normal
- Strengthen Water & Grazing Management: Rehabilitate water sources, conserve excess feeds/hay, and preserve reserve grazing areas to ensure resilience during future droughts — reducing risks of overgrazing and siltation.
- Boost Productivity & Disease Control: Promote early maturing fodder crops, rangeland reseeding, and disease surveillance to improve livestock condition and food security while addressing risks of vector-borne outbreaks.
- Enhance Climate & Early Warning Services: Provide timely advisories tailored to local zones (flood-prone, rangeland, pastoral) to guide country-level strategies, manage uncertainties, and support anticipatory action under climate variability.
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Key Response Measures /Advisories
Drier than normal
- Safeguard Livelihoods & Markets: Encourage voluntary destocking, expand livestock insurance, and explore flexible market models (e.g., animal leasing) to protect income and reduce losses. Risk: weak uptake if financing or awareness is low.
- Secure Feed & Water Supplies: Provide supplementary feeds, conserve crop residues, truck water where critical, and open/manage reserve grazing areas to maintain livestock productivity. Risk: logistical constraints and escalating costs under prolonged drought.
- Strengthen Climate & Health Services: Deliver timely climate advisories (heat stress, market info), expand mobile vet/disease surveillance, and promote livelihood diversification. Risk: limited capacity and cross-border coordination challenges.
