The cross-border forage prediction model is an important decision support tool aimed at informing the livestock and other relevant sectors on the seasonal outlooks on forage condition. It covers the Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda borderland areas.

Outlook for March-May 2024

Predicted wetter-than-normal conditions expected in most cross-border areas of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda, and Drier than normal conditions expected over parts of eastern and western Ethiopia and localized areas in western South Sudan.

Perceived Impact

• Outbreak of water and vector borne diseases, Rift Valley fever (RVF). Regeneration of pasture and availability of water in most cross-border areas.
• Reduced pastures in areas with below average rains leading to increased movement of livestock in search of pasture and water.
• Higher competition and potential conflict due to migration related to inadequate pasture in areas of little or no rain.
• Livestock deaths due to expected flash floods.
• Heavy rains will affect timely access to markets.

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