The cross-border forage prediction model is an important planning and decision support tool aimed at informing the livestock and other relevant sectors on the seasonal outlooks on forage condition. It is also intended to form the basis for tailored advisories for anticipatory action. It covers the Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda borderland areas.

Outlook for June-September 2024

With the predicted wetter-than-normal conditions expected in most cross-border areas along Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, West and Eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya.

Perceived Impact

• Regeneration of pasture and availability of water in most cross-border areas.
• Increased livestock production including breeding and productivity.
• Favorable for fodder and forage production/conservation.
• Outbreak of water and vector borne diseases, Rift Valley fever (RVF), TADs.
• Reduced pastures in areas with below average rains leading to increased movement of livestock in search of pasture and water.
• Livestock deaths due to flash floods and landslides.
• High temperatures may lead to heat stress, hence reduced production and productivity.
• Potential for sporadic resource-based conflicts; pastoralists, farmers, and wildlife.
• Heavy rains will affect timely access to markets.

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